Templates

The tools behind our work.

Sixteen templates from our two practices. Each one sets out the question it answers, when to use it, what you get and what it takes. Two are here in full; for the others, write to us.

Strategic foresight Seven templates, from the first conversations to the roadmap.Venture and innovation Nine templates, from judging a venture to buying one.

Strategic foresight

For governments and organisations planning for the futures they face, in the order a project uses them.

Foundation · 01

Strategic conversations

Which issues matter most, in the words of the people closest to them?

Use it when: A foresight project is starting and you need to know which questions it should answer.
You get: A ranked list of strategic issues, showing where people agree and where they differ.
It takes: Fifteen to twenty confidential interviews of about an hour, over two to four weeks.

The oracle
A good outcome
A bad outcome
Where we stand
Looking back
Looking ahead
The epitaph

Open the full template

Before you start

Choose fifteen to twenty people who see the topic from different sides: leadership, the people closest to the work, partners, clients, a critic or two, and someone from outside the field. Most issues surface within the first twelve to fifteen interviews; when new interviews stop adding new issues, you have enough.

Interview in pairs: one person asks, the other records. Promise confidentiality and keep it: nothing in the write-up is attributed to anyone. Set a time horizon for the topic, such as ten or twenty years, and use it in every question.

The seven questions

Ask them in this order. The first three look to the future, the next two at the present and the past, and the last two at what to do.

The oracle. If you could speak to someone who knew how this topic turns out, what would you most want to know?
A good outcome. Imagine it has gone well. What does that look like, and what made it happen?
A bad outcome. Now imagine it has gone badly. What went wrong, and what did we miss?
Where we stand. What in the way we work today would have to change for the good outcome to happen?
Looking back. Which events from the past should we keep in mind, because they shaped where we are now?
Looking ahead. Which decisions have to be taken in the next year or two, and by whom?
The epitaph. If you had a free hand, with no limits on budget or mandate, what more would you do?

After each interview

Write it up within a day, while it is fresh, in the interviewee's own words where you can. Note every distinct issue they raised, however briefly.

Bringing the interviews together

Group the issues across all the interviews, then fill in one row for each.

Issue	Raised by	Where people agree	Where they differ	Priority
				High / Medium / Low

Rank the issues by how often they were raised and how much rides on them. Issues on which people disagree deserve as much attention as those on which they agree: they are often where the real uncertainty lies. The ranked list is the starting point for the rest of a foresight project, from the scan of trends to the scenarios.

Exploration · 02

Trends and drivers

Which changes outside the organisation matter most, and which are most uncertain?

Use it when: Before a strategy or scenario exercise, or as a regular watch on what is changing.
You get: A register of signals, a short list of named trends, and the drivers of change ranked by impact and uncertainty.
It takes: Two to six weeks: sixty or more sources and a workshop to make sense of them.

Trend	Direction	Speed	Impact	Uncertainty
From … to …

Exploration · 03

Expert forecast

Where do the experts agree on what comes next, and where do they not?

Use it when: The evidence is thin and you need the judgement of many people, without the loudest voice deciding.
You get: Forecasts with their level of agreement, and the reasoning of those who disagree.
It takes: A panel of fifteen to thirty, two or three anonymous rounds, about three months. A short version runs in a day.

Round 1: open questions
Round 2: rate each statement, see the group's view
Round 3: revise, or explain why not
Agreement measured against a rule set beforehand

Envisioning · 04

Futures wheel and systems map

If this change happens, what follows from it, and what keeps it going?

Use it when: A trend or a decision is on the table and you need to trace its knock-on effects.
You get: A map of first, second and third-order consequences, and the feedback loops that drive the system.
It takes: A ninety-minute wheel and a half-day mapping workshop, with eight to twenty people.

Design · 05

Scenarios

What different futures could we face, and what would each mean for us?

Use it when: The future turns on two or three big uncertainties, and a single forecast would mislead.
You get: Four scenarios, each with its story, how it came about and what it means for you, and a table comparing them.
It takes: Two to four weeks once the drivers are known, with two workshops.

Uncertainty A: one end the other end Uncertainty B: one end the other end

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 3

Scenario 4

Design · 06

Stress-test and backcast

Which of our plans hold up in every future, and what do we do first?

Use it when: Scenarios exist, and decisions on money and people are about to be made.
You get: Each plan rated robust, conditional or vulnerable; a path back from the future you want to today; and the signals to watch, with what each would set off.
It takes: One or two workshops of four to eight hours.

Plan	S1	S2	S3	S4	Rating
					Robust
					Conditional
					Vulnerable

Design · 07

Vision to roadmap

Where do we want to be, and how do we get there in stages?

Use it when: Foresight has to become a strategy that people can own and fund.
You get: A vision with three to five aims, the strategies and resources behind them, a roadmap in stages with a go or no-go decision at each, and how to measure progress.
It takes: Four to eight weeks, with the leadership and the people who will carry it out.

Outcomes

Vision

Strategies

Enablers

Now	Next	Later

Venture and innovation

For investors, institutions and founders, grouped by the three areas of the practice: investing, building and advising.

Investing · 08

Venture scorecard

How strong is this venture, measured against your own thesis?

Use it when: Deals arrive faster than you can study each one, or a committee needs a common basis.
You get: A weighted score for each venture and a short note on its strengths and weaknesses.
It takes: Under an hour for each venture, once the weights are set.

Category	Weight	Score	Weighted
Team	25%
Market	20%
Product	15%
…
Total	100%

Open the full template

How it works

Set the weights before you look at any deal, so that they reflect your thesis rather than the venture in front of you. The weights below are a starting point; an investor who backs teams above all might give the team a third of the total.

Score each category against a typical venture at the same stage: 100% means typical, 0% means far weaker, 150% means far stronger. Multiply each score by its weight and add the results. A total above 100% means the venture is stronger than a typical deal at its stage.

The scorecard

Category	Weight	What to look for
Team	25%	Have they done this before? Do they work well together? Who advises them, and who sits on the board?
Market	20%	How large is it, how fast is it growing, and why is now the moment?
Product and technology	15%	What does it do that the alternatives do not? What protects it?
Route to market	10%	Which channels, and is there a credible plan to reach the first customers?
Customers	10%	Who buys, what does it cost to win one, and do they stay?
Business model	10%	Do the numbers on each sale work, does it scale, and what stops others copying it?
Funding	10%	How long does the money last, what would the next round pay for, and what is the worst case?

An example

For illustration, a seed-stage venture with an experienced team and strong technology, but little money left:

Category	Weight	Score	Weighted
Team	25%	125%	31.25
Market	20%	100%	20.00
Product and technology	15%	150%	22.50
Route to market	10%	75%	7.50
Customers	10%	100%	10.00
Business model	10%	100%	10.00
Funding	10%	50%	5.00
Total	100%		106.25

At 106, the venture is a little stronger than a typical deal at its stage, and the score points to the question to ask next: how it will fund the next eighteen months.

Reading the score

Use the score to open the discussion. Two ventures with the same total can look very different, so read the rows as well as the sum, and have a person review every score before it reaches a committee.

Investing · 09

Market and industry analysis

Is this market worth entering, and how is the industry around it changing?

Use it when: You are forming an investment thesis, or weighing a new market or region.
You get: The market sized, the forces in the industry scored, its value chain mapped, and the best way in: build, buy or partner.
It takes: Two to four weeks.

Force	High / Medium / Low
New entrants
Suppliers
Buyers
Substitutes
Rivalry

Build	Buy	Partner

Building · 10

Value proposition

What do we offer, to whom, and why would they choose it?

Use it when: At the start of a new venture, product or programme, and whenever one loses its way.
You get: What each customer is trying to get done, what stands in the way, how the offer answers both, and the proposition in one paragraph.
It takes: One to three weeks, including interviews with customers.

The customer	The offer
What they need to get done	What we offer
What gets in the way	How it removes the obstacle
What they would gain	How it adds the gain

Building · 11

Business model and patterns

How does this venture create value and make money, and what other models could it use?

Use it when: You are designing a new business, or the current model has stopped working.
You get: The business model on one page, and two or three established patterns tested against it.
It takes: A day's workshop, then a week of testing.

Partners

Activities

Resources

Proposition

Relationships

Channels

Customers

Costs

Revenue

Building · 12

Product launch and pricing

Should we build this product, and what should we charge for it?

Use it when: Before committing to a new product or service, or when its price is in doubt.
You get: The product's case against the alternatives, its customers and the cost of winning them, a pricing approach and a price, and when it breaks even.
It takes: Two to four weeks.

Pricing on	Best for
Cost	Commodities
The market	Visible competitors
Value	Differentiated offers

Building · 13

Growth and competitive position

Where should we grow next, and how do we answer a competitor's move?

Use it when: Growth is stalling, a portfolio needs choices, or a competitor's move has changed your market.
You get: The growth options laid out by product and market, the portfolio sorted into invest, hold and fix, and the responses to a competitor scored.
It takes: Two to three weeks.

New products Existing products Existing markets New markets

Product development

Diversification

Market penetration

Market development

Advising · 14

Business case and plan

Why should this be funded, and how will it be delivered?

Use it when: You are asking a board, an investor or a funder for money.
You get: A short case (problem, solution, benefits, risks, cost) and the full plan behind it: market, sales and marketing, team, financials, risks and roadmap.
It takes: A week for the case; four to six for the plan.

Risk	Likelihood	Impact	Response

Advising · 15

Pitch deck

What does an investor need to see, and in what order?

Use it when: Before a fundraise, and before every meeting that might become one.
You get: Twelve slides with one message each, from the problem to the ask.
It takes: One to two weeks, with rehearsal.

Problem
Solution
Why now
Market
Model
Competition
Traction
Product
Go-to-market
Team
Financials
The ask

Advising · 16

M&A evaluation

Should we buy this business, at what price, and what happens after?

Use it when: A target is in view, or you are preparing a business for sale.
You get: The strategic case, diligence across six areas, a valuation range from pessimistic to optimistic, and the plan for integration.
It takes: Four to twelve weeks, depending on the deal.

Diligence
Financial	Legal
Industry	Operations
Market	Culture

Pessimistic	Base	Optimistic

Write to us to learn more about our templates.

info@tenten100.com